Recent data points to positive movement in Prime London’s property market, where buyers are staying active and sales pipelines are robust despite ongoing economic and policy concerns.
Recent figures from LonRes highlight a 22.1% rise in properties going under offer in September compared to last year, indicating renewed interest in prime areas and suggesting a promising start to autumn.
After a quieter end to summer, Q3 brought a 17.5% increase in properties going under offer year on-year and a 21.4% rise above the pre-pandemic Q3 average. According to LonRes, this trend signals strong buyer demand and a substantial sales pipeline forming in the market. While actual transactions were slightly lower than last year, they remained 5% above long-term monthly averages, with the year-to-date sales total for the first nine months of 2024 trailing only 2.1% behind 2023.
Properties Under Offer in Third Quarter
(100 = 2017-2019 average)
Despite the backdrop of economic challenges, average achieved prices in Prime London are down by just 1.8% on the year, holding relatively steady at 0.2% above pre-2020 averages with an average rate of £1,300 psf across prime postcodes. September saw a surge in new listings, up 15.7% year-on-year and 23.7% above the 2017-2019 averages. Supply has remained robust, with 12.7% more homes for sale compared to last September, giving buyers an extensive selection. High inventory has also led to significant price adjustments, marking the highest number of reductions seen for this time of year in over three years.
Supply Metrics Compared to 2017-2019 Average of Same Month
For properties in the top-tier £5mn-plus category, supply is especially high, with new instructions up 36.1% from last September. Although transactions in this price bracket were down slightly by 2.9% year-on-year, this segment has shown significant long-term growth, with new instructions up 86.5% and listings 67.7% above 2019 levels. The report emphasises that while demand in the £5mn-plus market has moderated from the peaks of 2021-2023, activity remains robust compared to pre-pandemic levels, suggesting a return to more typical conditions rather than a sharp decline.
As we enter a new season, buyers and sellers in Prime London can benefit from understanding these emerging trends. The high level of choice coupled with stable pricing patterns creates a promising environment for discerning investors and homebuyers looking to secure property in Prime London.
Measures of £5m+ Market Activity
Q3 2024
Charles Erwin, Director of Winkworth Notting Hill commented, "We have noticed a marked increase in activity at the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4, which we expect to continue into 2025. After a sluggish start to the year we have found that buyers have come into the autumn market with renewed vigour, as they are focused on securing a property at the end of year. We have been very busy with the core market particularly, which has been helped by parents buying for their children and also the domestic and international pied-a-terre market.
Commenting on the higher end of the market Charles said, "While abolishment of the non-dom status will no doubt affect the market at the upper end, for American buyers who already pay tax on their world-wide income this is not an issue and we have seen a resurgence of the American buyer in Q3 & Q4. Buyers are educated and if a best-in-class property is priced correctly, it will sell. The gap between vendor and buyers’ expectations is narrowing which is highlighted by the increase in price reductions as sellers realise that the key to a successful sale is to have the correct asking price and buyers simply will not view or offer if they feel a property is over priced."
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